How Do Older Households React to Inflation? – Heart for Retirement Analysis

Introduction 

U.S. inflation peaked at 8.9 p.c in June 2022, and, whereas the speed has declined considerably since then, inflation nonetheless stays an necessary concern.  That concern is justified in that the primary transient on this two-part sequence – in addition to quite a few different research – have proven that inflation harms older households by each decreasing their consumption and diminishing their wealth.  Most researchers, nonetheless, don’t think about how households react to inflation and the way these reactions might have an effect on their outcomes.  

This transient builds on the situation evaluation within the first transient by together with behavioral responses when wanting on the impact of inflation on consumption and wealth of close to retirees and retirees.  The behavioral responses come from a brand new survey that explores how older households reacted to latest inflation – by way of labor provide, saving, and asset allocation.  These responses are integrated into the situation evaluation to offer a extra full image of the affect of inflation on the consumption and wealth of older households.    

The dialogue proceeds as follows.  The primary part briefly recaps the primary findings from the situation evaluation within the first transient.  The second part describes the survey, which reveals that a good portion of each close to retirees and retirees cut back new saving and improve withdrawals from current accounts, however only some close to retirees delay their deliberate retirement.  Curiously, older households don’t modify their asset allocation in response to inflation to any significant extent.  The third part incorporates decreased saving and elevated withdrawals into the situation evaluation, exhibiting that these behaviors offset the drop in consumption brought on by inflation.  This enchancment in consumption isn’t costless, nonetheless, since households find yourself with considerably much less wealth on the finish of the interval.  The ultimate part concludes that households should be capable of make amends for saving – however will they accomplish that?

Recap of Situation Evaluation (w/out Behavioral Responses) 

The primary transient estimated the affect of inflation on the funds of close to retirees (head ages 55-62) and retirees (head ages 62 and older) from 2021 to 2025.  We centered on two metrics: 1) the true change in consumption from the start of the evaluation interval to the top; and a couple of) the inventory of family wealth (monetary and housing) on the finish of the interval.   

Since inflation can have totally different results relying on the Fed’s coverage response, we thought of 4 hypothetical eventualities: 1) No inflation, which serves because the baseline, 2) Everlasting shock, the place inflation spikes at 4 p.c and stays there; 3) Smooth touchdown, the place inflation progressively returns to 2 p.c in 2025 with out a recession; and 4) Recession, the place inflation begins to rise once more in 2024 and the Fed responds aggressively by elevating charges.  All outcomes have been reported relative to the “no-inflation” situation. 

For the reason that outcomes confirmed that inflation had little or no affect on housing wealth, this transient solely presents the findings for the change in consumption and monetary wealth.  When it comes to the distinction within the progress fee of consumption relative to the “no-inflation situation,” the important thing discovering is that close to retirees expertise a smaller decline than retirees, even having fun with actual consumption positive factors within the “delicate touchdown” situation (see Desk 1).  This consequence is because of the actual decline in mortgage funds relative to earnings.  In distinction, retirees have much less erosion of actual debt, and infrequently additionally lose actual revenue as employer pension advantages are solely partially listed to inflation.

When it comes to monetary (non-housing) wealth in 2025, we see that inflation has an unambiguous unfavorable affect (see Desk 2).  High-wealth households, nonetheless, all the time lose lower than their lower-wealth counterparts, as a result of they spend money on equities, companies, and different belongings that develop with inflation.

In brief, most older households lose actual consumption and wealth after an inflation shock.  The magnitude of the loss is determined by the character of the shock, the true progress of revenue and belongings, and the family’s publicity to fixed-rate debt.  The questions addressed on this evaluation are how households react to inflation and the results of their reactions for his or her consumption and wealth.

How Have Households Reacted to Latest Inflation? 

Since financial concept is ambiguous about how older households ought to react to inflation, we undertook a brand new survey to discover how inflation impacted their conduct between 2021 and 2023.  The survey was fielded by Greenwald Analysis in November 2023 and contains 1,501 respondents ages 55-85.  To align with the situation evaluation, famous above, we concentrate on two teams: close to retirees, who have been underneath age 62 and dealing full time in 2021; and retirees, who have been 62 or older and retired from their major profession in 2021, with a partner additionally retired. Finally, 322 respondents within the survey meet our definition of close to retirees and 630 meet our definition of retirees.  

To supply context for the primary evaluation, the survey requested a sequence of questions on respondents’ price of dwelling, the expansion of their revenue and belongings (relative to the change in costs), and their financial outlook.  Determine 1 reveals the share of respondents reporting a change of their price of dwelling between 2021 and 2023.  Fifty-four p.c of close to retirees and 40 p.c of retirees fee the rise as “very substantial,” and one other 30-31 p.c fee it “substantial.”

In the meantime, Determine 2 reveals the share of close to retirees who report that their family’s work revenue saved tempo with inflation over this era.  Over half report that their earnings have gone up lower than inflation, 35 p.c report that earnings saved tempo with inflation, and solely 11 p.c skilled actual wage progress.  This sample aligns with the Federal Reserve Financial institution of Atlanta’s Wage Progress Tracker, which reviews that employees ages 55+ noticed a decline in actual wages from the start of 2021 by means of Could of 2023.

Equally, Determine 3 reveals the reported efficiency of family investments between 2021 and 2023, relative to cost ranges.  Seventy-two p.c of close to retirees and 64 p.c of retirees state that their investments grew lower than inflation, 11 p.c report that investments tracked inflation, and solely 6 p.c noticed actual progress.

To quantify the affect on family budgets, the survey additionally requested respondents to estimate the greenback improve of their month-to-month price of dwelling between 2021 and 2023 as a proportion of 2023 family revenue.  This query measures the extent to which costs rose sooner than revenue for every family.  Though these greenback values are topic to recall error (and are top-coded at 8 p.c of revenue) we will decide whether or not bills rose 5 p.c sooner than revenue or extra, and the way that extra worth progress correlates with respondents’ notion of inflation.  As anticipated, 34 p.c of respondents experiencing “very substantial” inflation report that their month-to-month bills rose at the very least 5 p.c sooner than revenue, in comparison with 11 p.c of respondents within the “substantial” group, and solely 2 p.c of respondents within the “not a lot” group.

Unsurprisingly given these experiences, many older households are pessimistic concerning the trajectory of the financial system.  Fifty-three p.c of close to retirees and 43 p.c of retirees have a unfavorable outlook for 2024 (see Desk 3).  Moreover, 60 p.c of close to retirees and 52 p.c of retirees consider that final yr’s inflation will contribute to a weaker financial system over the yr.

The subsequent step is to have a look at how respondents’ expertise with, and perceptions of, inflation affected their conduct.  The survey requested respondents whether or not they had made adjustments since 2021 alongside 4 dimensions: 1) labor provide (retirement age and hours labored); 2) saving fee; 3) withdrawals from financial savings; and 4) asset allocation.  For respondents reporting a change in conduct, the survey had them rank their motivations so as of significance.  We attribute a change in conduct to inflation if the respondent cited rising costs as their major motivator.  

Labor Provide 

Desk 4 reviews the affect of inflation on labor provide.  The primary row reveals that whereas 34 p.c of all close to retirees modified their retirement age, solely 4 p.c did so due to inflation.  Amongst these reacting to inflation, the following row reveals a median anticipated delay of 4 years.  For context, this size of delay is much like outcomes from earlier survey analysis, however we discover many fewer people select to delay in any respect.  One clarification is that earlier analysis interviewed respondents on the top of inflation in 2022, whereas we fielded our survey in November 2023.

Saving and Withdrawals

Turning to monetary wealth, 39 p.c of close to retirees declare to have modified their saving due to inflation (see Desk 5).  Amongst these primarily motivated by inflation, annual saving declined by $4,065, on common, or 4 p.c of annual family revenue in 2023.

Moreover, rising costs induced each close to retirees and retirees to dip into their financial savings.  Desk 6, which mixes the outcomes for each teams as a result of they’re fairly comparable, reviews that 23 p.c of respondents modified their withdrawals from 2021 to 2023 due to rising costs.  Amongst these making adjustments, the common improve was $3,620 (5 p.c of 2023 family revenue).

Asset Allocation  

In distinction to the substantial shares of households altering saving and withdrawals, a a lot smaller proportion modified their asset allocation.  Desk 7, which once more combines outcomes for close to retirees and retirees, signifies that, whereas 35 p.c of all households modified their allocation between 2021 and 2023, the magnitude of the shift may be very small.  To the extent that shifts occurred, households moved away from equities and towards fastened revenue.

Implications for Retirement Safety

The subsequent step is to include households’ behavioral responses into the situation modeling.  For this train, we concentrate on the adjustments in saving and withdrawals, since only a few close to retirees modified their retirement age or asset allocation.  For every near-retiree family, we calculate the full discount in saving (the decline in saving plus the rise in withdrawals between 2021 and 2023).  On common, this discount equaled 4 p.c of 2023 revenue, which we annualize to 2 p.c per yr.  Equally, retirees improve their annual withdrawals by 2.5 p.c of revenue (annualizing the 5-percent change reported within the survey for 2021-2023).  For simplicity, we assume that households throughout the wealth distribution reply equally and that the annualized charges of change begin in Could 2021 and persist by means of December 2025.   

Desk 8 reveals the distinction within the progress fee of actual consumption, from 2021 to 2025, relative to the “no inflation” situation as soon as we incorporate behavioral responses reported within the survey.  Unsurprisingly, households are capable of shut a lot of the inflation-consumption hole by tapping into their financial savings.  The important thing distinction in outcomes right here is between close to retirees – who all present positive factors in consumption – and retirees – who primarily see small declines.

This short-term acquire, nonetheless, comes on the expense of future consumption.  Desk 9 compares actual monetary wealth in 2025, with behavioral responses, to the “no inflation” situation.  As anticipated, decreased saving and elevated withdrawals compound the direct affect of inflation on wealth.

To obviously illustrate this trade-off between present and future consumption, Determine 4 compares the outcomes incorporating the behavioral responses to the unique baseline evaluation for one kind of family: close to retirees within the middle-wealth tercile underneath the “delicate touchdown” situation.  Recall that, within the authentic mannequin, the expansion fee of actual consumption was 0.5 proportion factors greater than within the “no inflation” situation (because of the actual decline in mortgage debt).  After households cut back their saving, actual consumption grows 6.4 proportion factors greater than in “no inflation.”  Nevertheless, whereas the preliminary mannequin discovered a 6.6-percent discount in monetary wealth in comparison with “no inflation,” the outcomes incorporating behavioral responses create an 11.9-percent drop.  This identical trade-off holds throughout all age teams, wealth terciles, and macroeconomic eventualities.

Conclusion

Excessive inflation in later life is usually dangerous to retirement safety.  Compounding the direct impacts on actual revenue and wealth, many households reduce their saving and improve withdrawals when inflation spikes.  So, what can older households do to mitigate the danger of a future inflation shock?

Households which can be nonetheless working when inflation hits have essentially the most flexibility to enhance their scenario.  Since wages are likely to lag costs, households that keep within the workforce are prone to expertise actual wage positive factors finally, permitting them to make amends for their saving.  Working longer additionally reduces the interval over which financial savings should unfold.  

Retired households have much less alternative to earn inflation-adjusted revenue.  Nevertheless, they will nonetheless take protecting steps when inflation hits, comparable to – to the extent potential – re-investing their fixed-income holdings to benefit from rising rates of interest, fairly than making withdrawals that lock in massive preliminary losses.  

The inflation shock that prompted our examine is beginning to recede, and the Federal Reserve now appears prone to obtain a delicate touchdown.  Will households reverse course as inflation moderates, saving extra and withdrawing much less?  We depart these and different questions for future work.

References

Aubry, Jean-Pierre and Laura D. Quinby. 2024a. “How Does Inflation Affect Close to Retirees and Retirees?” Concern in Temporary 24-12. Chestnut Hill, MA: Heart for Retirement Analysis at Boston School. 

Aubry, Jean-Pierre and Laura D. Quinby. 2024b. “How Do Households React to Inflation? New Survey Proof.” Working Paper 2024-3. Chestnut Hill, MA: Heart for Retirement Analysis at Boston School.

Aubry, Jean-Pierre and Laura D. Quinby. 2024c. “What Dangers Do Close to Retirees and Retirees Face from Inflation?” Working Paper 2024-4. Chestnut Hill, MA: Heart for Retirement Analysis at Boston School.

Federal Reserve Financial institution of Atlanta. 2000-2023. “Wage Progress Tracker.” Atlanta, GA.

Franklin, Glen. 2023. “The Affect of Inflation’s Return on Retirement Planning.” Highlands Ranch, CO: 401k Specialist. 

MFS Funding Administration. 2023. “Inflation is Already Reshaping Retirement Methods and Expectations, 2023 MFS World Retirement Survey Finds.” Boston, MA.

Nationwide. 2022. “Nationwide in Plan Sponsor: Survey Report.” Columbus, OH.

U.S. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Survey of Client Funds, 2019. Washington, DC.